Bhagwati, Panagariya and Why Growth Matters
Aravind
Panagriya and Jagdish Bhagwati have been painted by media (the non presstitute
kind, which are fervent Modibhakts) as opposed to the last UPA government and
its doings. It was with curiosity then that I took up their well-known book
“Why growth matters” . In most editorial and oped columns, the book has been
depicted as ferociously opposed to the UPA economic policies and it has been
claimed that the book has shown how the UPA government had derailed economic
growth.
However when
I read the book, which was published in 2013, and presumably written in 2012 ,
judging by the tables published, I was bewildered. Nowhere did I find any
denunciation of the UPA policies. To the contrary, all their calculations have
shown that the UPA government did quite well in most of the economic parameters
that they calculated.
Let us take
for instance the question of poverty reduction. The opposition ( read the BJP)
at that time made a huge hue and cry about the poverty figures and claimed that
the Tendulkar Committee recommendations
were some sort of huge conspiracy( I can still remember the Facebook posts by
the Hindutwits) about how this was a statistical jugglery to reduce poverty
levels by sleight of hand.
Read what
they have to say:
“In the
second half of 2011, the media created the distinct impression that the
Planning Commission, in its submission to the Supreme Court, had deliberately
lowered the poverty lines to exclude many of the genuinely poor…..
the Planning
Commission had actually raised the poverty line"
Another
quote: “Mukim and Pangariya show strikingly that poverty fell for the scheduled
tribes and Scheduled tribes between every pair of successive surveys in rural
and urban areas. “
A very
instructive table in page 30 shows the growth rate (annual GDP growth at factor
cost) to have risen from 5.8% in the
1988-2003 phase which included the famed Vajpayee government to 8.2% in 2003
-20012 ( entirely UPA ruled).
Another myth
that they have tackled is that Bangladesh, and sub Saharan African countries
have done a lot better than India in health matters. They have pointed out that
while Bangladesh has a lower infant mortality rate than India, ( 41vs50), the
rate of stillbirth in Bangladesh which is 36 against India’s 22 ( all per 1000
births) offsets the difference handily. The maternal mortality rate is much higher
than in India. They have also pertinently pointed out that the correct
comparison would be with West Bengal where all parameters are much better than
in Bangladesh.
I have
always felt this when I hear many Indian social scientists lauding the progress
of Bangladesh vis a vis India/ West Bengal. The latest is last week’s column by
Ramchandra Guha in the Telegraph. If the economy is doing so well, if all the health
and other figures are so good, how come the migration takes place from
Bangladesh to India and not the other way around? It reminds me of the
communist paradises which the workers could not wait to abandon for the decadent West where they were
exploited on a daily basis according to the same social scientists.
Another myth
that is propagated is that they are against the so called Track 2 reforms where
entitlements are made for poorer populations. They have, of course criticized
the huge corruption associated with all government programmes ( which is till ongoing) , but they are all
praise for the Rural work programme and the Right to Food bill. They have made
suggestions to improve the programmes, but there is no criticism of the
programmes themselves.
Another
striking feature is the respectful tone that they have adopted towards Jawaharlal
Nehru and his economic and other policies. They are avowedly right wing, but
have no hesitation in giving him his due, unlike their so called followers who
use abusive language and befoul what can be an honest debate.
The problem
with Hindutwits is that they hold positions that are indefensible and cannot debate
these positions. So obviously the only
response can only be abuse and threats. I am glad to see that the avalanche of social
media abuse is showing signs of decline. Many of my friends who were fervent
forwarders of asinine Hindu twit posts have begun to show indifference. I am
glad because, debate and discussion is the only way that we can prevent the
sort of government that we had for the last two years of the UPA regime;
setting up of systems to eliminate the sources of corruption are essential and
that idiots are idiots, whether in the opposition or in power.
One thing
that I am now finding a trifle amusing is that Panagariya has yet to introduce
or influence some policies that he had put forward in the book as the boss of
the Niti Ayog . Perhaps he has already discovered that prescribing from the
sidelines is a lot different form actually doing it on the ground?
( Jagdish
Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya: Why Growth Matters : Public Affairs, New York,
2013 )
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